BANGALORE (Reuters) - US for-profit education companies, market darlings not so long ago, have been hammered in recent weeks as the government threatens to withdraw student aid and tighten rules.
Firms such as Apollo Group (APOL.O) and Strayer Education (STRA.O) saw rapid growth during the recession as people went back to school to retool, but the sector has been plagued with regulatory concerns since the Securities and Exchange Commission began investigations last October into bellwether Apollos revenue recognition practices.
The governments gainful employment proposal — which calls for colleges to prove they prepare students for jobs before they can receive federal aid — and probes into enrollment and recruitment practices have battered the sector.
The Samp;P 1500 Education Services sub-index .15GSPEDUS has almost halved since mid-April to 28-month lows.
Some analysts recommend buying education stocks as they are cheap, but most remain cautious as the regulatory concerns swirl.
Investors, too, have been betting against the stocks, with short positions in Strayer as high as 22 percent. About 14 percent of Capella Education Cos (CPLA.O) outstanding shares are shorted. Sirius XM Radio (SIRI.O), one of the most shorted stocks on Nasdaq, has a short interest of 5 percent.
BE CHOOSY OR BUY FOR LONG RUN
Analysts recommend Strayer, Capella and American Public Education (APEI.O) as these companies have the least exposure to the proposed gainful employment rules.
Robert W. Baird analyst Amy Junker, who rates Strayer and Capella as outperform, said these firms were best placed to weather any additional regulation as they focus more on working adults, and they have a clean regulatory history.
We would not sell any of the stocks at current multiples, but think multiples could remain compressed until theres more clarity on gainful employment and the outcome of the mid-term elections in November, said Junker, who also has her top rating on American Public Education and Grand Canyon (LOPE.O).
Education stocks were beaten down on Monday after the education department released data on schools loan repayment rates, which showed many may not qualify for federal student aid.
Despite our lowered ratings, we believe considerable value exists for patient investors in many of the education stocks today, said Barclays analyst Gary Bisbee, who on Tuesday cut his rating on a bunch of education stocks.
He expects the gainful employment rule to have an earnings impact of 5-30 percent, compared with the more than 50 percent hit priced into many of the stocks.
Oppenheimer said some stocks valuations make for intriguing entry points for longer-term investors. He rates Capella, DeVry (DV.N) and Lincoln Educational Services (LINC.O) as outperform.
CAUTIOUS IN NEAR TERM
Some analysts said there was no upside potential for these stocks in the near term as the regulatory overhang could drag on for months.
I dont think investors need to be in this space right now, said RBC Capital Markets analyst Robert Wetenhall, citing the regulatory issues, slowing enrollment growth and lack of institutional sponsorship. He has sell ratings on Corinthian Colleges (COCO.O) and Bridgepoint Education (BPI.N).
We dont believe the sector is going to make up lost ground anytime soon, said Wetenhall, adding that a falling market value would mean closet index funds are no longer required to own these names, and shares could likely drift sideways or lower.
Sterne, Agee amp; Leach analyst Arvind Bhatia is advising investors to stay on the sidelines even though the stocks are trading at low multiples, and these could drop further in 2011.
Apollo and DeVry, for example, trade around 7-8 times forecast earnings, compared with a sector average of nearer 19.
There are changes coming which will impact these companies significantly, said Bhatia, who only likes American Public Education. Bhatia said he will wait for more clarity on regulations before becoming positive on the sector.
Were playing the game without fully understanding the rules of the game.
(Reporting by Megha Mandavia and A.Ananthalakshmi in Bangalore)
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